Pace Poll and Rock the Vote Study New Voters

Newly registered voters may not have a strong effect on the upcoming presidential election, concluded a new Pace University\Rock the Vote research study performed July 8-20. When asked about candidate preference, newly registered voters, defined as those who registered to vote after the 2000 presidential election, appears just as split as the rest of the nation. If the election were to occur at the end of the polling period, which was before the Democratic National Convention, newly registered voters would have preferred Sen. Kerry over Pres. Bush 50 percent to %-40 percent%. But with Ralph Nader included, the race among new voters is a dead heat with Pres. Bush winning the group by 2 percent% over Kerry with a 4 point margin of error. Nader would receive 6 percent% of the group. According to the study, the group doesn't follow some political norms usually associated with certain groups. It found that more people claimed to be evangelical (39%) compared to the 33 percent% that identify themselves as Republican, leaving a small gap outside the norm that evangelicals identify themselves as republicans. The poll also seems to indicate that ideological identification (liberal v. conservative), has no direct correlation with newly registered voters' opinion on fiscal issues. Conservatives lead Liberals in new registration 36 percent %to -33 percent%, which would help Pres. Bush in November. But when asked whether it was more important to receive tax cuts or reducing the federal deficit, 51 percent% favored reducing the deficit and 44 percent% favored the tax cuts. When given the choice between increased opportunities for affordable healthcare and the tax cuts, support was overwhelming for the healthcare, 77 percent %to -21 percent%. This may mean good news for John Kerry who is touting both balanced budgets and affordable healthcare in his campaign. It also looks like new voters share the same concerns on issues as the general population with the exception of education. The survey found that newly registered voters on average find education to be the most important issue to them followed by the economy, healthcare, and the war on terror. With new registrants almost mirroring the general voting population on most of these issues, predicting the winner of this voting block is just as difficult as predicting the winner of the entire election. The percentage of newly registered voters that identify themselves as independent also makes it difficult to predict this voting block's possible impact on the election. The poll indicates that 29 percent% of newly registered voters are Republicans while 28 percent% identify themselves as Democrats. Thirty-nine percent 39% of those polled claim to be a pure independent, an independent with small leanings one way or another, or identify with a third party. Therefore,So party identification within the demographic of newly registered voters will not predict which way the group will swing. The Pace Poll interviewed 662 new registrants, randomly selected from 43 states and the District of Columbia.